Executive Summary

Vietnam's economy shows robust mid-year growth led by services and manufacturing.
Report 2025 • Updated

Vietnam recorded 7.52% GDP growth in H1 2025 — the highest mid-year performance since 2011. Q2 2025 grew 7.96% YoY. Strong FDI, low unemployment and controlled inflation underpin growth despite global trade tensions.

7.52%
H1 2025 GDP Growth (YoY)
7.96%
Q2 2025 GDP Growth (YoY)
3.57%
June 2025 Inflation
2.20%
Unemployment Q1 2025
FDI Inflows +32.6% YoY
Government target: 8.3–8.5%
World Bank: 5.8% • IMF: 5.2%
Forecast vs Actual
Citations
Govt Target
8.3–8.5%
ADB
6.6%
World Bank
5.8%
IMF
5.2%
Sources: IMF, ADB, World Bank, Government statistics (see References)
Actionable Insight
Policy & Business Implication

Sustain growth while prioritizing macroeconomic stability: diversify export markets, manage credit growth and use targeted fiscal support to handle external shocks.

Key Economic Indicators

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Quarterly GDP Growth (2024–2025)
YoY %
Source: General Statistics Office, IMF
Annual GDP Growth (2020–2025)
Yearly %
Includes forecast & historical comparison
Inflation (May–June 2025) & Forecasts
%, month & forecast
IMF: 2.9% • ADB: 4.0%
Sector Contribution (Est.)
Share of GDP
Services & Manufacturing drive growth

Sectoral Analysis

Performance breakdown & retail trends

Services

Primary contributor to H1 2025 growth — strong domestic consumption and tourism recovery.

Manufacturing

Export-oriented manufacturing supported by FDI inflows and supply chain relocation.

Banking

Projected earnings +17% in 2025 on credit growth ~15%.

Retail Performance & Numbers (Q1 2025)

Retail sales reached 1.708 quadrillion VND (US$66.83B), +9.9% YoY, indicating resilient domestic demand.

Interactive Visualizations

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FDI vs GDP Growth (H1 2025)
Scatter plot
Shows correlation between regional FDI & quarter growth
Monthly Indicator Heatmap (Jan–Jun 2025)
Inflation, FDI & Retail
Color intensity reflects magnitude; hover for exact values

Searchable & Sortable Data Table

Period ↕ GDP Growth % Inflation % Unemployment % FDI (US$B)

Outlook & Policy Recommendations

Near-term prospects, risks and mitigation

Near-term Prospects

Vietnam began 2025 strongly. However, external trade tensions and uncertainty may moderate growth. Strong domestic fundamentals (FDI, low unemployment, controlled inflation) support a resilient outcome.

Risk Mitigation

  • Diversify export markets and move up value chains
  • Manage credit growth to avoid overheating and inflation
  • Strengthen social safety nets and fiscal space for targeted support
  • Encourage sustainable FDI and local value addition

References & Appendix

Source attribution and raw data

Sources

  1. Trading Economics - Vietnam GDP Annual Growth Rate (tradingeconomics.com)
  2. International Monetary Fund - Vietnam Country Profile (imf.org)
  3. World Bank - Vietnam (worldbank.org)
  4. General Statistics Office - Vietnam (gso.gov.vn)
  5. FocusEconomics, Vietnam Briefing, Vietnam Investment Review
Appendix: Raw Data